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4-Year Crypto Cycle Broken? [Extended Cycle Evidence]

#Cryptocurrency
2025-11-07 19:549 min read

Content Introduction
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The video discusses the ongoing debate in the cryptocurrency community about whether we are in a four-year cycle or an extended cycle in Bitcoin's price movements. It emphasizes the significance of understanding these cycles for financial decision-making, particularly in investing strategies. The presenter examines historical data, charts, and the influence of institutional buying on Bitcoin, reflecting on the changing dynamics of market participants. While recognizing different buyer behaviors between retail and institutional investors, it concludes by suggesting that maintaining awareness of market trends is crucial for potential profitability in the future. The presenter hints at possible scenarios for Bitcoin's price action in the coming months and emphasizes that the institutional influence continues to grow, setting the stage for a possible extended cycle.

Key Information

  • The current key debate in the crypto space is whether we are in a four-year cycle or an extended cycle.
  • Determining which cycle is more accurate can significantly impact financial decisions and returns on investment.
  • Recent discussions about this topic have taken place in newsletters and online communities, suggesting a demand for deeper analysis.
  • The four-year cycle relates closely to Bitcoin halving events, during which the supply of newly mined Bitcoin is reduced.
  • Historical data suggests Bitcoin's price tends to rise after these halving events, often culminating in a cycle peak about a year later.
  • Current market dynamics include the entry of institutional investors who are purchasing and holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin, significantly influencing market trends.
  • Institutional acquisitions have outpaced retail interest in the current cycle, which is different from previous cycles.
  • The analysis covers various market factors, including the historical volatility of Bitcoin, indicating a maturation of the asset class as it becomes more adopted among institutions.
  • Price action might suggest we are in the midst of an extended cycle, while individual financial strategies may be impacted by market conditions in the coming months and years.

Timeline Analysis

Content Keywords

crypto debate

The video discusses the current debate in the cryptocurrency world: whether we are in a four-year cycle or an extended cycle, emphasizing the importance of getting this insight right for financial success.

four-year cycle vs extended cycle

This segment explains the differences between the four-year Bitcoin price cycles and extended cycles, highlighting the relevance of Bitcoin halvings to price action and the implications for investors.

Bitcoin price action

The discussion includes a detailed look at Bitcoin's price dynamics in relation to supply and demand, historical data, and anticipated future trends based on past cycles.

market forces

The impact of institutions entering the Bitcoin market and how their buying behaviors differ from retail investors is explored, emphasizing the growing influence of institutional investment on Bitcoin's price stability.

investment strategy

The video advises viewers on how to align their investment strategies with the ongoing cycles in the crypto market, suggesting that understanding market dynamics can lead to profitable decisions.

Bitcoin ETFs

A focus on the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs and their role in attracting institutional investments, analyzing how this trend will shape market conditions and affect retail investors.

retail investor behavior

Discussion on how retail investors are currently less active in the Bitcoin market and the risks associated with selling too early amid changing market dynamics.

volatility analysis

The analysis of Bitcoin's historical volatility and its link to price cycles, detailing how current low volatility might suggest different outcomes for future price movements.

future price predictions

The video concludes with insights into potential future price movements for Bitcoin, speculating on price peaks and the implications for investors based on current market trends.

Related questions&answers

What is the current debate in the cryptocurrency space?

The ultimate crypto debate at the moment is whether we are in a four-year cycle or an extended cycle.

Why is determining the cycle important?

Getting this one right makes the difference in terms of cold hard cash.

What has been discussed in the newsletter and Discord group?

There have been many in-depth discussions on this topic recently.

What two cycles are being analyzed?

The four-year cycle and the extended cycle are being analyzed.

What impact do Bitcoin halvings have on price?

Bitcoin's price action is mostly a consequence of supply and demand dynamics around Bitcoin halvings.

What does the four-year cycle suggest about Bitcoin price?

It suggests that a supply shock hits, causing a parabolic run-up about a year afterwards.

What are the implications of Bitcoin ETFs?

Bitcoin ETFs might lead to greater institutional buying, which could affect market dynamics.

How does institutional buying compare to retail buying?

Institutional buying is growing while retail buying has been declining.

What is suggested if new all-time highs are reached?

If new all-time highs are reached, it could indicate the case for an extended cycle.

What might signal the end of the four-year cycle?

If new tops are hit in early 2026, it would suggest that the four-year cycle is done.

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